Run Book evidence · may I add AVAX?
High-beta monetary/network asset. Capture asset: NO.
No contractual AVAX capture mechanism. Portfolio exposure unknown — ADD disabled. Opportunity cost vs BTC/cash does not pass. Type C/D L1 growth is not an AVAX add reason.
Strongest reason not to add Concentration is unknown. Capture state is PRE_CAPTURE — Avalanche activity is not accruing to AVAX. Cannot defend incremental AVAX versus BTC after the configured haircut. New ecosystem activity is Type C/D. Net issuance remains dilutive.
What would open a small add
What would open a moderate add
What would cause a reduce
What would invalidate the thesis
These conditions are recorded before the outcome, not written to fit it.
| Source | Recipient | Annual | AVAX capture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Issuer reserve income on Avalanche-resident float | Circle / Tether (and other issuers) | $82.80M | NO |
| Holder yield (BUIDL, Avant, JAAA, etc.) | Tokenized-fund / yield-bearing stable holders | $32.40M | NO |
| On-chain application value added (NGCP minus fees) | Applications / LPs / operators | $36.05M | NO |
| Staking rewards (newly minted AVAX) | Validators / delegators | $112.00M | NO |
| C-Chain fees burned | AVAX holders (pro-rata supply reduction — nobody receives cash) | $1.15M | NO |
| Stablecoin reserve capture option (single prize) | Unassigned — hypothetical branch only | $82.80M | NO |
Activity alone is not value capture. A network can grow busier without that activity improving the economics of its native token.
Status quo / betaPRE_CAPTURE
Must be true Market continues to pay a monetary premium many times realized capture
Kill criteria Signed AVAX-mapped share; Official NGCP collapse
Capture emergingCAPTURE_EMERGING
Must be true A contract exists that is not a research article
Kill criteria Agreement cancelled; Value routed to Foundation cash with no AVAX map
Capture liveCAPTURE_LIVE
Must be true Realized capture is no longer just C-Chain fee burn
Kill criteria Flow stops; Mechanism unwound
Structural failureCAPTURE_FAILED
Must be true Avalanche can succeed as infrastructure while AVAX remains economically peripheral
Kill criteria A Type A sink appears at scale; Capture goes live
Avalanche economic activity will remain relevant.OPEN
Kill criteria Official annualized NGCP below $12M for two consecutive published months
AVAX can regain meaningful economic capture beyond fee burn.OPEN
Kill criteria Two named capture paths formally abandoned; No contractual AVAX-mapped flow 12 months after V2 start
L1 growth will eventually create AVAX sinks.OPEN
Kill criteria New economic activity remains Type C/D for 12 months with no Type A addition
AVAX dilution can improve (net issuance falls or turns negative).OPEN
Kill criteria Net inflation stays above 3% for two official quarters with no issuance ACP
AVAX retains sufficient monetary/network premium versus ETH/SOL/BTC.OPEN
Kill criteria AVAX/BTC makes a new cycle low while capture state is still PRE_CAPTURE and Type C dominates
AVAX attractiveness is WAIT with a stable fundamental book. Official June 2026 NGCP annualizes to $37.20M and NGCI-general to $152.40M. Realized AVAX capture is still essentially C-Chain fee burn ($1.15M annualized, ratio 3.09% of NGCP). Issuer reserve income of $82.80M/yr is official potential, not received. Net issuance remains positive under the configured consumption-rate assumption (3.39%). Price is $7.58 with mcap/NGCP 88.0x and mcap/realized-capture 2848x. Portfolio overlay: Not configured — attractiveness is reported without a risk overlay.
Bull requires a real capture mechanism — reserve-yield share, a used protocol-owned stablecoin, or L1/app revenue that actually buys or burns AVAX — plus continued production. Modeled bull capture $25.00M at 220x implies $12.74. That case is not the base case.
Base case is more of the present: modest NGCP, fee burn as the only realized sink, catalysts discussed rather than activated, net issuance still positive. Modeled base price $0.58.
Bear is production down, float down, no sharing agreement, and a compressed multiple on a still-tiny captured stream. Modeled bear price $0.11. The strongest bear reading of good Avalanche news is that it raises everyone else's income.